An ROI Analysis of Federal Neutron Scattering Facilities

Federal investment in science infrastructure – including particle accelerators, research reactors, and X-ray and other light sources – made in the 1950s and 1960s helped propel the United States into a global leadership role in scientific discovery and commercial innovation. But continued investment in science infrastructure is needed to expand fundamental knowledge and to facilitate research and development activities to spur innovation and industrial applications. These facilities can cost billions of dollars and take decades to plan, construct, and outfit with instrumentation. Due to the high costs and uncertain returns to these investments, lawmakers can be hesitant to fund science infrastructure when faced with competing priorities.

In 2024, RTI International had the opportunity to quantify the economic benefits derived from investments in three neutron scattering facilities operated by the U.S. government that have open-user programs: 

1. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)’s Center for Neutron Research (NCNR)
2. The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) High-Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR)
3. The ORNL Spallation Neutron Source (SNS)

This research was supported by a cooperative agreement with NIST, and considered science  infrastructure needs that could enhance the United States’ competitive position in the future. 

The Critical Role of Neutron Research in Advancing U.S. Industry and Innovation

Neutron research is critical to materials innovation, the physical and life sciences, and the overall competitiveness of American industries. It cuts across essentially all manufacturing and production industries, from biotechnology and energy technologies, to aerospace and defense. Neutron scattering is a premier technique for materials characterization for basic and applied research applications. As a neutral subatomic particle, neutrons can pass through atomic spacings and interact with the nuclei of samples, allowing for deep penetration into materials. Common advantages over similar techniques such as X-rays, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, or light scattering include that neutrons have an angle-independent form-factor and higher sensitivity to magnetic order and light elements. These qualities provide value propositions that make neutron scattering a necessary technique for some types of materials analysis. Neutron scattering can be performed by either using nuclear reactors (NIST, HFIR) as a source of neutrons or by using spallation sources (SNS).  

Access to federal research facilities is critical to a diverse group of companies and industries who use them to perform applied research. The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry uses neutron scattering to see how drugs interact with targets under real-use conditions; to investigate biological materials such as cancer cells, invasive disease cells, or biological therapeutics; and to develop micro-sized drug delivery tools. The aerospace industry benefits from neutron diffraction for the analysis of materials for airplane construction and the use of radiography to nondestructively investigate machinery in working conditions. Catch-all industries with varied examples of neutron scattering use include the glass manufacturer Corning, and the corporate conglomerates 3M and General Electric. 

Evaluating the Return on Investment in Neutron Scattering

A benefit-cost analysis compares investment costs to the monetized social, economic, and environmental benefits attributable to that investment. The RTI team estimated the social, economic, and environmental benefits realized across four case study technologies – computer hard drives, aviation safety, GLP-1 weight loss drugs, and electric vehicle development – from 1998 through 2030. We compared these benefits to the construction and operating costs of NCNR, HFIR, and SNS incurred from 1960 through 2030 under various scenarios of benefit attribution to neutron scattering research. Benefits and costs accruing over time are each brought to a present value (PV) by adjusting for inflation and social time preferences around consumption. Two values that communicate return on investment are the net present value (NPV), which is calculated as the PV of benefits less the PV of costs, and the benefit-cost ratio (BCR), which is calculated as the PV of benefits divided by the PV of costs. 

To better inform our research, we surveyed and interviewed 247 users of the NCNR, HFIR, and SNS facilities about their research results. We also analyzed the publications, patents and collaborative research networks formed at current and former U.S. federal neutron scattering research facilities. To describe impacts on industry, we collected data on U.S.-based corporations that have used current and former facilities​, including their global revenues and employment. Finally, we summarized policy options to increase U.S. neutron scattering research capacity, drawn from reviews of previous federal and international reports, and supported by interviews with facility users and staff scientists. 

Quantifying the Economic Impact of Neutron Scattering Research Facilities

Assuming neutron scattering research accelerated the development of the selected case study technologies by 2 years, the estimated NPV from the neutron scattering research facilities represented by the case studies is $29.4 billion (range: $11.8 billion to $63.6 billion). The estimated BCR is 2.67 (range:1.67 to 4.61)—meaning that for every dollar invested in U.S. neutron scattering research facilities, $2.67 in benefits are realized. Similar results are found when considering a scenario where 20% of case study benefits are attributable to neutron scattering research. Both a 20% total attribution rate and a 2-year acceleration effect are reasonable assumptions given expert testimony on the influence of neutron scattering research. 

These results are highly conservative as they only rely on benefits from four case studies of technologies influenced by neutron scattering. These represent a small portion of total innovation influenced by U.S. neutron scattering research infrastructure, as we identified at least 22,808 research publications and 1,565 U.S. patents based on research conducted at current and former U.S. federal neutron scattering research facilities from 1960 through 2020. We further identified at least 372 U.S.-based companies that are known to have used at least one of the current or former U.S. federal neutron sources—including both large-scale entities and small and midsize enterprises (SMEs) across nearly every industry in the United States.

Strengthening U.S. Neutron Scattering Research: Addressing Capacity Needs and Future Investments

While facility use has been extensive, survey results revealed that there is a need for increased neutron scattering research capacity in the United States. Of the 247 facility users surveyed, we identified that 77% of these respondents experienced issues due to insufficient facility access in the five years before facility shutdowns in 2020. Issues included research quality reductions (32%) and lost or underutilized grant funds (25%). Of the survey respondents, 19% took their research overseas in response to issues with accessing U.S. research facilities.

Drawing on experience from other parts of the world, the U.S. neutron scattering ecosystem has the potential to be strengthened through the following actions: 

• Forming a unified federal leadership committee or taskforce to develop a decadal plan or roadmap for neutron scattering facilities and national resilience, and 
• Maintaining adequate funding for operating and improving existing facilities, strategically invigorating university facilities, and funding construction of new facilities. 

Given the decades-long timeline for constructing a new neutron source, longer-term economic modeling would be needed to capture the economic impacts of major changes in U.S. neutron source investments. It could also be useful to fund comparative assessments of competitive and complementary materials assessment technologies, including spallation sources, reactors, synchrotrons, and other emerging X-ray technologies. Such assessments could further inform investment decisions to maximize the available U.S. materials research infrastructure. 

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