U.S. climate mitigation pathways post-2012: Transition scenarios in ADAGE

Abstract

The transition from the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels currently allowed under the Kyoto Protocol climate agreement to more ambitious, and internationally comprehensive, GHG reduction goals will have important implications for the global economic system. Given the major role that the United States plays in the global economy, and also as a major GHG emitter, this paper examines a range of climate policy pathways for the country in the context of international actions. The ADAGE model is used to examine policy impacts for climate scenarios, focusing on key factors such as emissions, technology deployment, macroeconomic indicators and international trade. In general, the simulations indicate that reductions in GHG emissions can be accomplished with limited economic adjustments, although impacts depend on the future availability of new low-carbon technologies.