(Unlearned) lessons from John Graunt and Kenneth Rothman: A “CLASSic” example

Abstract

This commentary reviews the work of John Graunt and Kenneth J. Rothman on statistical significance and the need for prespecification of study end points. The authors argue that it is dangerous to substitute oversimplifications based exclusively on whether a result has reached statistical significance for a rational process of causal inference. An example is given based on the Celecoxib Lonngterm Arthritis Safety Study