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Are Pretrial Assessments an Effective Strategy to Detain Fewer People and Reduce Arrests?
Demichele, M., Silver, I., & Labrecque, R. (2023). Smart Decarceration: Are Pretrial Assessments an Effective Strategy to Detain Fewer People and Reduce Arrests? RTI International. SSRN Electronic Journal https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4503667
Mass incarceration is a social problem facing the U.S. that has negative impacts for people of color. Many reform efforts are underway to reduce prison and jail populations, with pretrial assessments being one potential reform. There is a gap, however, in understanding how assessments compare to current pretrial release practices. We use data from all individuals admitted to a large county jail system (n = 28,188) from January 2017 through December 2018 to forecast new arrests for individuals detained by the court, rank order everyone, and compare release and new arrest rates between the risk-based release forecasts and observed release decisions. The findings estimate that a risk-based release process could result in reducing pretrial incarceration by 7 percent and new arrests by 13 percent. Our forecasts demonstrate that pretrial assessments have the potential to improve court release practices by detaining fewer people and decreasing new arrests. The research and policy implications of the study findings point to potential strategies to effectively reduce jail incarceration without increasing new arrests.
