Reciprocal neighborhood dynamics in gun violence exposure, community health, and concentrated disadvantage in one hundred US cities

Abstract

Gun violence imparts a tremendous human and financial toll on local communities. Researchers have documented extensive mental and physical health consequences of generalized violence exposure but few studies have analyzed the particular impacts of gun violence on community well-being using nationally comprehensive data. We leverage a unique database of almost 16,000 neighborhoods in 100 US cities (2014-2019) to examine how year-over-year rates of gun violence correspond to overall neighborhood well-being and three aspects of community health: (1) health behaviors, (2) physical and mental health status, and (3) health prevention efforts. We simultaneously consider the reciprocal influence of neighborhood well-being on subsequent gun violence while accounting for concentrated disadvantage in communities. The results demonstrate that gun violence is associated with poorer community health in subsequent years, particularly health behaviors and mental/physical health status. Furthermore, we find substantial reciprocal effects for both gun violence and community health in their relationship to neighborhood concentrated disadvantage. These findings highlight the consequential role of gun violence in perpetuating cycles of harm in local communities.