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Multivariable and structural uncertainty analyses for cost-effectiveness estimates
Back to the future
Mauskopf, J. (2019). Multivariable and structural uncertainty analyses for cost-effectiveness estimates: Back to the future. Value in Health, 22(5), 570-574. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2018.11.013
BACKGROUND: In this commentary, celebrating the 20th anniversary of the journal Value in Health, I present a brief overview and illustration of the evolution over the past 20 years of the methodological literature providing guidelines for multivariable and structural uncertainty analysis for cost-effectiveness estimates.
METHODS: To illustrate the impact of the guidelines for uncertainty analyses, I show how the inclusion of multivariable and structural uncertainty analyses in cost-effectiveness analyses published in Value in Health changed over the past 20 years using publications from 1999/2000, 2007 and 2017.
RESULTS: The commentary is organized in three sections: past, focusing on the development and use of methods for multivariable uncertainty analysis; present, focusing on the growing awareness of the need for structural uncertainty analysis, suggested frameworks for structural uncertainty analysis and how it is currently implemented; and future, considering different methods for combining multivariable and structural uncertainty analyses over the next decades.
CONCLUSIONS: I conclude by suggesting how the continued evolution of uncertainty analyses in published studies and health technology assessment submissions can best take into account an important goal of cost-effectiveness analyses: to provide useful information to decision makers.
