How long is long enough

Abstract

The debate over pretrial assessment instruments focuses largely on the potential for instruments to exacerbate racial disparities. This study examines the effects of using different recall periods for the criminal history items on the New Criminal Arrest (NCA) scale from the Public Safety Assessment. Using jail admission data from a large jurisdiction in the southeast of the US, we varied the recall period from 1 to 10 years for the criminal history items on the NCA scale and examined scoring differences and the predictive validity of the tool by race. The results showed that shorter criminal history recall periods could result in reductions in the proportion of individuals scored as high risk and no loss in validity. The current study demonstrates that shorter recall periods for criminal history items on pretrial instruments could potentially provide a practical strategy to mitigate disparities across groups, while maintaining predictive validity of the assessment.