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The economic costs of planting, preserving, and managing the world's forests to mitigate climate change
Austin, K., Baker, J. S., Sohngen, B. L., Wade, C. M., Daigneault, A., Ohrel, S. B., Ragnauth, S., & Bean, A. (2020). The economic costs of planting, preserving, and managing the world's forests to mitigate climate change. Nature Communications, 11(1), 5946. Article 5946. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19578-z
Forests are critical for stabilizing our climate, but costs of mitigation over space, time, and stakeholder group remain uncertain. Using the Global Timber Model, we project mitigation potential and costs for four abatement activities across sixteen regions for carbon price scenarios of $5 – $100/tCO2. We estimate 0.6 – 6.0 GtCO2yr-1 in global mitigation by 2055 at costs of 2 – 393 billion USD/yr, with avoided tropical deforestation comprising 41 – 69% of total mitigation. Higher prices incentivize larger mitigation proportions via rotation and forest management activities in temperate and boreal biomes. Forest area increases 415 – 875 Mha relative to the baseline by 2055 at prices $35 - $100/tCO2, with intensive plantations comprising <7% of this increase. Mitigation costs borne by private land managers comprise less than one-quarter of total costs. For forests to contribute ~10% of mitigation needed to limit global warming to 1.5⁰C, carbon prices will need to reach $281/tCO2 in 2055.
