An Analytical Technique for Urban Casualty Estimation from Multiple Nuclear Weapons

Abstract

A model has been developed that estimates the total number of direct effects casualties due to a multiple weapon attack on a city whose population has a circular normal distribution. The only specifications required are the coordinates of the ground zeros in relation to the center of population, the population parameters, the weapon parameters, and the aiming error for each weapon. Further generalizations involving extension of the model to consider elliptical normal population distributions, elliptical normal aiming error distributions, and modified casualty functions are also discussed