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Initiative will improve weather data used in flood risk management and infrastructure design
RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, N.C. – The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) estimates that 13 million Americans currently live within a 100-year flood zone – areas with a 1 percent chance of flooding in any given year. To improve flood risk management, the nonprofit research institute RTI International worked with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to update Atlas 14 volume 12, which covers Idaho, Montana and Wyoming.
Atlas 14 is the federal standard and authoritative source of precipitation frequency data and is derived from an analysis of historical precipitation data to predict the likelihood of observing a precipitation event at a specified location in any given year, under the assumption of a stationary climate.
Engineers use the precipitation frequency estimates in Atlas 14 to design, plan and manage infrastructure, such as culverts and roadways nationwide, under Federal, State and local regulations. These estimates help portray flood risks, manage development in floodplains for FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program and are used to monitor extreme precipitation observations and forecasts.
Volume 12, which hadn’t been updated since 1973, can now help more precisely answer questions about how common a given rainfall total is over a specified amount of time at locations in these three states and provide more precise information about 100-year storm events.
“Extreme weather events are happening more often and with growing intensity, adding to the complexities of managing these events within the nation’s current infrastructure,” said Michael Kane, director of RTI’s Center for Water Resources. “The work being done by our team helps water planners and emergency managers better understand the risks of these events, leading to improved design, planning and preparedness.”
RTI is also working with NOAA to develop Atlas 15 nationwide - the first national precipitation frequency analysis accounting for climate change. Most recently, a pilot project covering the state of Montana was released, highlighting another major milestone in improving prediction models to adapt to future climate conditions. A peer review is underway of this pilot product.
RTI’s work is part of NOAA’s Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology (CIROH) and in partnership with IBSS through a ProTech Weather contract. CIROH is a national consortium hosted by The University of Alabama that brings together academic, government and private sector partners to advance water prediction and management capabilities. Our team conducts research against a backdrop of increasing water demand and scarcity, extreme weather events and hydrologic uncertainty.
Learn more about RTI’s work with CIROH
Learn more about RTI’s Center for Water Resources
Learn more about the Atlas 15 pilot
