Modeling change in the presence of nonrandomly missing data

Abstract

In longitudinal research, interest often centers on individual trajectories of change over time. When there is missing data, a concern is whether data are systematically missing as a function of the individual trajectories. Such a missing data process, termed random coefficient-dependent missingness, is statistically nonignorable and can bias parameter estimates obtained from conventional growth models that assume missing data are missing at random. This article describes a shared parameter mixture model (SPMM) for testing the sensitivity of growth model parameter estimates to a random coefficient-dependent missingness mechanism. Simulations show that the SPMM recovers trajectory estimates as well as or better than a standard growth model across a range of missing data conditions. The article concludes with practical advice for longitudinal data analysts.