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How can results of longitudinal studies help mathematicians model the HIV epidemic among intravenous drug abusers and the general population?
Cooley, P., Hamill, D., Christopher, S., Liner, E., & Van Der Horst, CM. (1991). How can results of longitudinal studies help mathematicians model the HIV epidemic among intravenous drug abusers and the general population? In P. Hartsock, & SG. Genser (Eds.), Longitudinal Studies of HIV Infection in Intravenous Drug Users. NIDA Research Monograph 109 U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services, Public Health Service. http://archives.drugabuse.gov/pdf/monographs/109.pdf
This paper describes a simple model of the AIDS epidemic that has been developed to explore some fundamental relationships among factors that characterize that epidemic. These factors include: (1) needle sharing and sexual contacts with individuals within and among risk groups; (2) the rate of progression from infection with HIV to diagnosis of AIDS; (3) the nature of viral transmission, including infectivity of the virus; and (4) the survival rates of persons with AIDS. These factors are imperfectly understood by the scientific community, and until their influence on the epidemic can be evaluated, no reliable projections of the spread of HIV can be developed.