Climate change could negate US forest ecosystem service benefits gained through reductions in nitrogen and sulfur deposition

Abstract

Climate change and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) impact the health and productivity of forests. Here, we explored the potential impacts of these environmental stressors on ecosystem services provided by future forests in the contiguous U.S. We found that all stand-level services benefitted (+ 2.6 to 8.1%) from reductions in N+S deposition, largely attributable to positive responses to reduced S that offset the net negative effects of lower N levels. Sawtimber responded positively (+ 0.5 to 0.6%) to some climate change, but negatively (- 2.4 to - 3.8%) to the most extreme scenarios. Aboveground carbon (C) sequestration and forest diversity were negatively impacted by all modelled changes in climate. Notably, the most extreme climate scenario eliminated gains in all three services achieved through reduced deposition. As individual tree species responded differently to climate change and atmospheric deposition, associated services unique to each species increased or decreased under future scenarios. Our results suggest that climate change should be considered when evaluating the benefits of N and S air pollution policies on the services provided by U.S. forests.