Assessing strain on hospital capacity during a localized epidemic using a calibrated hospitalization microsimulation

Abstract

The ability of healthcare systems to provide patient care can become disrupted and overwhelmed during a major epidemic or pandemic. We adapted an existing hospitalization microsimulation of North Carolina to assess the impact of a localized epidemic of a fictitious pathogen on inpatient hospital bed availability in the same locale. As area hospital beds reach capacity, agents are turned away and seek treatment at different hospital locations. We explore how variability in the duration and severity of an epidemic affects hospital capacity in different North Carolina counties. We analyze various epidemic scenarios and provide insights into how many days counties and hospitals would have to prepare for a surge in capacity.