Using Behavioral Analysis to Improve Disaster Response in Crowded Public Spaces

Understanding the reactions of crowds and law enforcement officers during acts of terrorism and targeted attacks can enhance preparedness and inform security responses that maximize public safety.

Mass-casualty acts of terrorism are relatively rare in American public life, but the ongoing threat of these events looms large for law enforcement and others responsible for securing spaces and events open to the public.

Soft targets—spaces with higher degrees of public traffic but lower degrees of security in comparison to police, military, or critical infrastructure targets—are a central point of focus in anticipating and preventing similar attacks. Large events with centralized crowds like concerts or sporting events may be vulnerable to attack, as are consistently busy public spaces such as college campuses, religious centers, shopping malls, nightclubs, or restaurants.

In an ideal world, security professionals could prevent all mass-casualty events and attacks, but in reality, they must thoroughly prepare for worst-case scenarios and analyze how to improve disaster response and mitigate threats in the event of such tragedies. First responders and public safety officials must think more strategically about how to minimize injury and loss of life, safely conduct evacuations, and effectively carry out investigations when time is of the essence.

To help public safety and security professionals make better-informed choices regarding disaster response and preparedness with soft targets, RTI researchers – led by Dr. Matthew DeMichele – are partnering with the Cybersecurity Infrastructure Security Agency's (CISA) Office for Bombing Prevention (OBP) and the Department of Homeland Security’s Science and Technology Directorate (DHS S&T) to examine and model the behavior of crowds during bombings and mixed-modality attacks—those where the perpetrators use more than one type of weapon.

Simulating Targeting Attacks

This partnership developed four post-bombing agent-based models in various environments, such as a transportation center (e.g., a subway station), a sports arena, or a large outdoor event (e.g., a festival). Researchers producing these models conducted a multi-case study analysis, examining primary video data and open-source documents (e.g., court documents, eyewitness accounts, government investigations) about individual responses in the aftermath of past bombing events. Through the analysis of the case study data, researchers built out behavior profiles of “agent” groups, such as civilians and law enforcement, to determine how crowds will act in an emergency.

After classifying agent types and pairing these groups with their potential actions and influence on the actions of others, researchers placed the agents into simulation models to examine how collective crowd responses may differ among types of explosives, environments, and events. One individual’s behavior does not happen in a vacuum. In fact, it is likely to significantly influence the behavior of those nearby. The outcomes of these simulations have allowed first responder and security officials to generate a better-informed understanding of how people may react to bombings in the specific events and locations under their jurisdiction.

The insights into crowd behavior drawn from these models allows first responders and safety officials to understand how to more efficiently manage evacuations, how to minimize casualties through improved event designs and logistics, how to gather and preserve evidence, and how to perform any necessary triage more rapidly.

Applying Behavioral Simulation Models in Variable Contexts

RTI and the DHS’s current phase of the research specifically focuses on mixed-modality attacks that include bombings and an active shooter. Future novel modeling techniques might also contribute to improved emergency responses for mass-casualty events in other types of venues, such as mass shootings, vehicular attacks, or crowd crushes. Simulating these types of attacks represents an important opportunity for growth in better preparing public safety and security officials across the country and around the world to mitigate any possible threats facing their communities.